Predicting and Managing Climate Change Impacts on Semi-Arid Land Wetlands, Migratory Birds, and Their Prey: An Integration of Remote Sensing, Molecular Genetics, Hydrology, and Environmental Modeling

Research Task: WRD
Task Manager: Travis Schmidt

Anthropogenic climate change is altering aquatic ecosystems worldwide, particularly small and shallow systems such as wetlands. As a result of these abiotic changes, the terrestrial and aquatic species that depend on wetlands are also likely to experience significant shifts in range, phenology, and population structure, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where water availability and quality are already limited. We are developing a framework to determine and manage landscape-level impacts of climate change on wetlands and wetland-dependent species in semi-arid areas of North America’s Great Basin. We will first determine the scope of abiotic impacts from climate change, using remote sensing and ground-level monitoring to create models of the relationships between water volume, water quality, weather, and climate. We will then measure landscape-level population genetic connectivity of the aquatic invertebrates that serve as key prey species to the millions of migratory waterbirds dependent on these wetlands. We will apply projections of future climate conditions to model how wetland habitat quality and species connectivity will change in the coming decades by combining estimates of landscape connectivity for these species with a model of the climate drivers of wetland patch quality. This approach will serve as a general model for understanding population- and community-level climate impacts and provide a sound basis for conservation planning and adaptive management by wetland resource managers around the world.

 For more information contact Travis Schmidt