Cross-scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events

Product Type: Journal Article

Year: 2004

Author(s): Peters, D.P.C., R.A. Peilke, Sr., B.T. Bestelmeyer, C.D. Allen, S. Munson-McGee, and K.M. Havstad

Suggested Citation:
Peters, D.P.C., R.A. Peilke, Sr., B.T. Bestelmeyer, C.D. Allen, S. Munson-McGee, and K.M. Havstad. 2004. Cross-scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101(42): 15130-35.

Abstract

Catastrophic events share characteristic nonlinear behaviors that are often generated by cross-scale interactions and feedbacks among system elements. These events result in surprises that cannot easily be predicted based on information obtained at a single scale. Progress on catastrophic events has focused on one of the following two areas: nonlinear dynamics through time without an explicit consideration of spatial connectivity [Holling, C. S. (1992) Ecol. Monogr. 62, 447–502] or spatial connectivity and the spread of contagious processes without a consideration of cross-scale interactions and feedbacks [Zeng, N., Neeling, J. D., Lau, L. M. & Tucker, C. J. (1999) Science 286, 1537–1540]. These approaches rarely have ventured beyond traditional disciplinary boundaries...