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Predicting the Future: Where Fools Rush In

 

Photo of the Loch Vale Wilderness.

The book Rocky Mountain Futures: An Ecological Perspective (2002, Island Press; edited by USGS scientist Jill Baron) addressed cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains. Contributors described how mountain ecosystems have changed from past human use and projected how ecosystems might look in the future, given then-current drivers and trends. However, the past 10 years have seen unprecedented rates of social-ecological change from climate change, technological advances in fossil fuel and renewable energy extraction, and a stagnant global economy. At a symposium organized by USGS scientist Jill Baron, for the Ecological Society of America's 97th annual meeting (in Portland, OR, Aug. 5-10, 2012) these issues will be discussed. The symposium, Rocky Mountain Futures: Preserving, Utilizing, and Sustaining Rocky Mountain Ecosystems, occurs on Aug. 7 and features presentations by Dr. Baron, USGS scientists Zack Bowen and Dan Fagre, and university and U.S. Forest Service colleagues. Presentations include: The indirect human influence on western mountain environments: Vulnerabilities and resiliencies (Dan Fagre, NOROCK); Trends and issues associated with energy development in the West (Zack Bowen, FORT); and Only fools and newcomers predict the future: The hubris of forecasting (Dr. Baron), which will compare 2002 and 2012, examining how rapidly changing global forces supersede or are superimposed on local decisions. Also at this meeting, Dr. Baron will begin her role as President-Elect of the ESA.

 For more information contact: Jill Baron

See Also:

 Western Mountain Initiative: Response of Western Mountain Ecosystems to Climatic Variability and Change: Colorado

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